RBA rate decisions, economic indicators, big four bank forecasts, property market, fiscal policy, and ASX investment analysis β all in one place.
Target rate (%)
YoY change (%)
Index points
Exchange rate
CBA expects two 25bps cuts in H2 2026, taking the cash rate to 3.85% by December. Sees household consumption recovering as mortgage relief flows through and real wages turn positive.
Westpac pencils in one cut in November, taking the rate to 4.10%. Services inflation at 4.1% remains the key constraint β a sustained decline is needed before the RBA begins easing.
ANZ sees no cuts in 2026, holding at 4.35% through year-end. Points to a tight labour market β unemployment at 4.0% β and resilient wage growth as reasons for RBA patience.
NAB forecasts one cut in Q4 2026 to 4.10%, in line with market pricing. Flags China's $500B stimulus as a significant upside risk for Australian commodity exports and the AUD.
The RBA has begun cutting rates from a 12-year high. Banks, REITs, and rate-sensitive sectors are the primary beneficiaries. Watch for credit growth re-acceleration.
Australia's iron ore, coal, and LNG exports are heavily tied to Chinese industrial activity. China's $500B stimulus package is a direct tailwind for BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue.
Rate cuts are reigniting housing demand in Sydney and Melbourne. Low supply, population growth, and falling rates create a supportive backdrop for residential property.
Australia's $4.1T super system is a structural buyer of domestic and global equities. Compulsory contributions at 11.5% of wages ensure persistent capital inflows.
Australia holds the world's largest reserves of lithium, cobalt, and rare earths. The global energy transition is driving long-term demand for Australian critical mineral exports.
The AUD is trading below fair value on most models. A Fed easing cycle, China recovery, and commodity price strength could push AUD/USD toward 0.70 by end-2026.